Council by-election leaflet review

Since 2007, I've been reviewing election leaflets on this blog (there's a list on this page) but this year is the first time I've had 'skin in the game' because I've been out delivering some of them! (ICYMI, I joined Plaid Cymru last month!)

We are having a by-election because one of our four Labour councillors resigned recently. (Probably because of events covered in this rather unpleasant news story that doesn't paint the Cardiff Labour Party in a nice light, and I can understand why she left.) The councillor who resigned is someone I've talked to about problems with a local park being closed, and, on a personal level, I thought she was a good councillor. But she's left a party I feel has been failing Cardiff as a city for a while now. 

And the result is this by-election. So, with just a couple of days left before polling day, here is a run-down and review of the electoral campaign leaflets that I've seen. Looking back at the council election in 2022 and the General Election last year, I didn't do my usual thing of awarding and deducting points. So, I don't feel too hypocritical not doing it this year either. (Obviously, this year, I think everyone should vote for Plaid Cymru.)

I should also point out that not all these leaflets have come through our letterbox. I have been given some of them by other people. It's been fun being in the canvassing WhatsApp group and seeing people sharing different leaflets they have received - usually new ones ended up coming through our door too, so it was a bit spoilery. But that's fine. 

I'm going to assess the leaflets on whether they are bilingual, their 'photo effort' and also the number of dragons or other Welsh symbols that appear on leaflets. The dragon quotient (DQ) is important. I enjoy seeing graphs and 'race' or 'winning' diagrams so will mention them too. I'm also going to sum up their overall message.

I'm going to do this in rough order the leaflets arrived, and first off the mark were Labour. They may have had the advantage because they knew their councillor was resigning, and as they run the council they had some sway over when the election was set. Their 'Grangetown Labour News' and a generic leaflet actually arrived before I knew there was a by-election.

Party: Labour / Llafur

Number of leaflets: 3 (candidate leaflet, Grangetown Labour News, generic Welsh Labour "Delivering for you" leaflet)

Candidate: Khuram Chowdhry (only features on one leaflet)

Photo effort: 1 of Khuram by Grange Gardens; a group shot of Khuram with Labour canvassers. Grangetown Labour News had head shots of the three incumbent Labour councillors who haven't resigned. The generic leaflet had five photos of Eluned Morgan, the First Minister on it. There were also some stock photos and the artist's rendering of what the new Channel View Development will look like, if it's ever finished. It seems to have been stuck in a half-built stage for months. 

Cymraeg: Yes, all 3 leaflets. 

Dragon Quotient: 1, an arty one on Khuram's candidate leaflet

Graphs: none

Overall message: Labour and Khuram say they know what the problems are - parking, litter, antisocial behaviour etc. And they have plans in place to fix it. Although, as they are the party that runs the council, it seems fair to ask why they haven't already put those plans into action and fixed it. There was a nice nod to the community litter-picking group in the newsletter. On the candidate leaflet, Khuram lists a load of things he would like to see happen - things like "protecting our parks and green spaces", when the Labour Council has approved plans to build on a chunk of The Marl, one of Grangetown's few parks. It does feel like all the things he wants to do would put him in direct opposition to most of his fellow Labour councillors. 

Party: Propel

Number of leaflets: 2 (both candidate leaflets)

Candidate: Vincent Yewlett (local guy who runs a business on Clare Road)

Photo effort: 1 candidate photo used on both leaflets, of Vincent stood on Clare Road, 2 different photos of Vincent and Propel party leader, Neil McAvoy, looking at 'problems' - the overgrown river bank and some rubbish strewn streets. Vincent is wearing a Wales retro football top in those photos. 

Cymraeg: both leaflets were bilingual

Dragon Quotient: Propel have a dragon in the logo and Vincent had a dragon on his football shirt in two of the photos, so that's a total of 4 across the leaflets. 

Graphs: none

Overall message: Vincent goes hard on his local status and claims to be the only candidate "walking the streets" of Grangetown. Propel are the "new Welsh alternative", apparently. 

Party: Plaid Cymru

Number of leaflets: 3 (2 candidate leaflets and 1 generic leaflet about how Plaid Cymru will fix NHS waiting lists)

Candidate: Neil Roberts

Photo from delivering the leaflets

Photo effort: 2 different head shots of Neil and a group photo with canvassers next to the bandstand in Grange Gardens. A couple of photos of problems - fly-tipping and a new development that is blocking out light for residents. The NHS leaflet is all stock photos. 

Cymraeg: wrth gwrs!

Dragon Quotient: Plaid Cymru use a daffodil in their logo and it features as an embellishment four times besides the logos. No dragons, though. 

Graphs: 1, showing the recent YouGov national poll that shows Plaid ahead generally in Wales.

Overall message: Neil offers a change from Labour and promises to challenge the Labour run council as "a fresh voice for Grangetown". He also wants to celebrate the diverse communities in Grangetown and challenge divisive rhetoric, with a direct reference to dogwhistle terms used by the Labour Prime Minister recently. Having talked to him, I know Neil wanted to run a positive campaign focusing on his ideas for improving life in the community rather than criticising other parties - a different approach than most of the other leaflets we received.

Party: Green Party

Number of leaflets: 5 (3 candidate leaflets and 2 attack pieces aimed at Labour)

Candidate: Matt Youde (knocked on our door while I was out canvassing; Cathy said he seemed nice)

Photo effort: multiple reuse of two photos taken in Sevenoaks Park (not Grange Gardens for a change) and one of Matt with his arms folded in an alley next to a big pile of fly-tipped waste. Two photos of another chap, who I think is the prospective Senedd candidate in next year's election but it doesn't actually say that. One of the hit pieces has a picture of Kier Starmer - which is one more picture of him than all the Labour leaflets combined. 

Cymraeg: all 5 pieces are bilingual

Dragon Quotient: zero! (Disappointing)

Graphs: a dodgy line graph based on "doorknocking data"; a race showing Labour and the Green runners leaving everyone else behind; a set of results from the last council election that claims Greens placed second, even though the Greens were in an alliance with Plaid Cymru for that election and the result was therefore a vote for both parties.

Technically not true

Also, technically, not entirely true

Overall message: Despite three candidate leaflets, I don't think Matt is offering much different from other candidates. He talks about litter - and, across all five leaflets, that is the only thing mentioned that could be considered an environmental issue. Nothing about the climate at all. Rent caps get mentioned several times. 

However, what is really different about the Greens' campaign is their two hit pieces - one is a letter from a former Labour councillor who has now joined the Greens and the other just says "Punish Labour, Vote Green!" I mean, that's a take, and I'm sure this will appeal to some people who are really angry with Labour but long-term you want to be more than just a protest vote because those don't stick. 

Wanted: angry voters!

Party: None (Independent)

Number of leaflets: 1

Candidate: Ahmed Abdillahi Abdi Samater

Photo effort: 1 candidate photo

Cymraeg: yes

Dragon Quotient: zero

Graphs: none

Overall message: quite positive, but the leaflet is a bit all over the place in terms of topics. Also the text was all centrally aligned and I find that hard to read.

Party: Conservative

Number of leaflets: 1 (given this landed alongside a leaflet for a builder, I suspect this was delivered by a leaflet delivery firm rather than a volunteer)

Candidate: James Hamblin (a Tory I know told me James lives in London but will be a Senedd candidate next year, so this is really just about him being able to say that he ran for the council as part of his Senedd campaign)

Photo effort: pretty decent - six different photos on one A4 double-sided leaflet. Photos of James outside the new central bus station (had he just arrived on a bus?), by the Tramshed venue, with Darren Millar (leader of the Welsh Conservatives), outside the Senedd with Andrew RT Davies (former leader of the Welsh Conservatives), with another guy I don't know possibly outside a pub, and an action shot of him cleaning some graffiti on Virgil Street. They aren't all taken on the same day either, unless he had a change of clothes with him. 

Cymraeg: None (except for the bilingual Welsh Conservatives logo)

Dragon Quotient: Zero

Graphs: none

Overall message: The Conservatives are using the hashtag #fixwales and there is a mix of ideas here, like night buses for Cardiff  and supporting live music venues. But there's some proper bollocks on here about "Labour's war on motorists" and how the Senedd shouldn't be expanded. At the same time as saying "36 more politicians? No thanks!", they are also saying they want a community council for Grangetown, which would be, er, more politicians, wouldn't it? Anyway, this is probably a good insight into the key themes the Tories will be campaigning on for the Senedd next year. 

And the very last leaflet to land on our mat was from...

Party: Reform UK

Number of leaflets: 1

Candidate: Joseph Martin

Photo effort: 1 candidate photo, where, weirdly, he's not looking at the camera.

Cymraeg: ha, ha, ha, no. 

Dragon Quotient: zero

Graphs: none

Overall Message: minimal really. "Cardiff needs Reform" is the slogan. There's a claim that Labour will introduce three week bin collections, which isn't true as far as I'm aware. On the scale of scaremongering, it's picayune stuff, but still it's misleading. I try to be fair in these reviews, even to parties I would never vote for, but there isn't much to say about this. When you have three policy statements and one of them is opposing something that isn't happening, then it's hard not to think it's a deliberate attempt to hoodwink people. 

So, that's the round up. 

Thursday is polling day. If you live near me and are voting, then vote Plaid Cymru!

2024 General Election Review

The result: Wales stops feeling blue

I stayed up until almost 5am watching the election results come in. Admittedly, I didn't watch it all - after the exit poll announcements at 10pm I watched the Star Wars film, Solo, to kill a bit of time before the actual results were declared.

By now, everyone with a passing interest in politics will know the headlines. Labour won with a big majority - something that felt unthinkable after Boris Johnson's huge win for the Tories in 2019. 

The Liberal Democrats went big as well, their 72 seats being the party's highest total for a century - going back to when they were just Liberal, no Democrat. 

Plaid Cymru won 4 seats, doubling their representation in the House of Commons. The number of constituencies in Cymru had dropped from 40 to 32, so some MPs had been squeezed out already. Every remaining Tory incumbent lost - including a record 4 former Welsh Secretaries. Most of the seats were won by Labour and the Liberal Democrats got one. 

The exit polls predicted a depressing total of Reform winning 13 seats. In the end they got 5, including panto politico Nigel Farage finally becoming an MP. Subsequently there have been questions over whether several Reform candidates were real people. The picture of their candidate in Clapham appears to be AI generated. Several candidates in Scotland have a nonexistent digital footprint. They still got thousands of votes though. 

I was happier to see the Green Party win a new record total for them of four seats. Jeremy Corbyn held on to his seat in Islington as an independent candidate having been ejected from the Labour Party. Amazing to think he was leading Labour in the previous two elections. Other independents won in areas with large Muslim populations, which is being taken as a protest vote against the Labour Party's stance on Gaza. The success of the independent candidates took some of the gloss off Labour's victory. 

I was flicking between channels on election night. I stayed mainly on BBC 1 Wales which focused on results from Cymru. BBC2 was the general BBC UK coverage chaired by Laura Kuenssberg, who I feel has been very partisan towards the Tories for several years. She was matey with Boris Johnson and seemed like his personal PR machine at times. Watching Laura slowly assimilating what was happening was quite amusing. Her expression turned increasingly sour as the night wore on. 

Meanwhile, on ITV there were some decent guest pundits including Ed Balls and Nicola Sturgeon. Sky's coverage was also quite good. It seemed that Sky announced results a fraction before the BBC. Sometimes they announced a bit too quickly, at one point they erroneously credited the Greens with a win in a seat Labour won off the Tories.

Early on in the night Andrew RT Davies, leader of the "Welsh" Conservatives, lost his cool on BBC1 Wales and lumped the blame for the Tory defeat squarely on (now ex) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. In fairness, he wasn't wrong in his criticism of the decision to call an election without a coherent campaign strategy. Rishi may have felt a July election would wrongfoot his opponents but it also seemed to wrongfoot his own party. 

I knew two people personally who were standing as candidates. My fellow Barry Town fan, Ian, was the Plaid Cymru candidate in the Vale of Glamorgan. A former work colleague, Charlie, stood as the Tory candidate in Llanelli. Neither won, but props to them both for standing. 

Now the dust has settled and we get to see whether Labour have been all mouth and no trousers in their promises of change. It's been barely a week and so far they seem to have made the right noises. I'm a bit concerned that the new health minister has links with private healthcare companies. But overall it feels that things may be different now. 

The lucky unlucky generation of politics students

Reflecting on a chaotic week in British politics. I keep thinking how exciting things must be for anyone doing an A-Level in Politics at the moment or starting one soon. I can't help comparing this to when I did my politics A-level from 1992 to 1994.

In the preceding decade there had been one change of Prime Minister - when John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher in 1990. The big "current" story was analysing the gap between the polls - which predicted Labour would win the 1992 General Election - and the reality, when John Major won a slight majority to extend Tory government for another five years. In the USA, Bill Clinton won the Presidential Election against the incumbent President, which was slightly unexpected because incumbents usually win. We did one year on UK politics and the second year on US politics, so Clinton's win was well-timed to be current. 

And that was just about it. The various seminars I went to in the course of my A-Level had very little else to discuss except for those misleading polls. I heard lots of theories about it, including from Tony Benn and Alastair Campbell before he became the infamous master of spin for Tony Blair. The most obvious reason for it was that people were ashamed to admit they voted Tory so lied to pollsters. 

Compare and contrast that to the situation now. A decade ago we were in the middle of the first official coalition government of my lifetime. There was a referendum on independence in Scotland. Then there was a General Election where the Tories won an unexpected majority as the Liberal Democrats reaped the reward for their alliance with the Tories and were immolated at the ballot box. That was 2015 - seven years ago - and everything has gone all kinds of crazy since. 

The only picture of this man you will see on this blog

Anyone studying "recent events" since then would struggle to keep up. There was the Brexit referendum (I voted to Remain). David Cameron quit as Prime Minister and was replaced by Theresa May. She gambled on getting a larger majority to push Brexit through against her own rebel MPs, and then lost the governmental majority in a general election in 2017. 

Although Theresa gamely struggled on, she was effectively sacked by her party in 2019, replaced by Boris Johnson. He then called another election - in 2019 - and won a massive majority by promising to "Get Brexit Done". That got fast-tracked and the UK had a 'hard Brexit' in January 2020 ending the 47 year membership of the EEC / EU. And then we've had all the ongoing shenanigans, corruption and lies culminating in a resignation that wasn't really a resignation.

And that's just the UK. The USA political scene hasn't been quite as dramatic, although the election of Donald Trump, thanks in a large way to the weaponisation of evangelical Christians in a 'Culture War', and particularly the end of his reign with an attempted insurrection on the steps of the Capitol, could keep an A-level student in essay topics for days. (Incidentally, the Tories have attempted to co-opt religion over here - it's just not such a massive demographic to tap in to.)

I really don't know where people would start studying all that. Even so, part of me is kind of jealous when I think of how boring politics was in the early 90s.

However, my envy for the current generation of A-Level students is tempered by knowing they are going to have to live with the consequences of all this nonsense. Particularly Brexit, which is already having dire economic consequences. But also the way the country now seems to have a choice of frothing right-wingers intent on pandering to racists and bigots to be its next leader. Who knows what fresh hell will be unleashed from the people eyeing up the job of Prime Minister.

Today's students are going to have to live with these consequences for longer than I will. They might have more to write about in their A-Level work, but at what cost?

Popcorn politics

Well, this is some week in politics (and it's not over yet).  It's been a week to break out the popcorn, settle down and watch the news. Much of the country has watched faintly aghast and disgusted as the Prime Minister has tried to hang on to office like a particularly persistent bacteria fights a rear-guard action against antibiotics.

I'm just going to go ahead and post this tweet, because it's rare enough that I get to say "I told you so" quite so spectacularly. So indulge me.

If you want to see some other things I've tweeted about Boris Johnson over the intervening period, here is a handy preloaded Twitter search. It's not complimentary. 

The real problem, as Cathy succinctly pointed out to me, is that people knew what he was like - he has a history of racist remarks, abandoning his multiple families, lying, taking large amounts of money from dubious donors, and pandering to right wing racists. And people overlooked all that and voted for him anyway.

This current political meltdown is on all of the people who voted for this arch-charlatan. We know why they voted for him in droves. He said he would get Brexit done. Which, I will admit grudgingly, is about the one promise he has kept. Even if it was a brutal version of Brexit that is tanking the economy and will impoverish future generations.

Almost immediately after the UK crashed out of the EU we had the pandemic, which is being spun to us as a Boris success. Except it wasn't. The UK has the highest number of deaths compared to EU and EAA countries in Europe (including 20,000 people who have died so far in 2022). It wasn't Boris that saved the nation from an even worse outcome. It was NHS staff who reorganised services in double quick time, worked to breaking point, and organised the largest vaccine roll out ever seen in the UK.

The NHS saved his life too. And what was the thanks - when the wave of stories about lockdown parties in Number 10 broke - Boris Johnson's defenders said it was no different to nurses having a drink in the break room at the end of their shift. This slur has been angrily challenged by every healthcare professional I know.

In my most uncharitable moments, I have said that the biggest tactical mistake ever made by anyone working in the NHS was keeping Boris Johnson alive. I'm not saying a replacement would have been outlandishly better, but it can hardly have been any worse.

So we come to the last few months. Almost every week has brought a new scandal. More hypocrisy. More corruption. More sexual indiscretions. (The most recent one caused an explosion of jokes when he was alleged to have knocked up his hairdresser. Most people seemed incredulous that he had a hairdresser.) More lies - until eventually a civil servant said enough was enough and publicly stated that Boris Johnson definitely did know that his deputy chief whip was a serial groper and his denials were lies. 

Even the way he has sort of resigned today reveals the real Boris Johnson. He snidely blamed the 'herd mentality' of Tory MPs, subtly implying they lost their nerve and were bitter ingrates. He saw the last election as his victory, his parliamentary majority to do with as he wished, his mandate to rule, and now it was being taken away from him because of the cowardice of others. No sense that he brought this on himself. In his eyes it can't possibly be his fault even though his decisions are the fuel that has kept this bin fire raging for months. He's not even leaving properly - appointing himself the sitting duck caretaker Prime Minister so he can stay in his corrupt little palace for as long as possible. 

So he is going. Not gone. Like I said, the week ain't over, Neither is this shitshow.

Reflecting on 2021 – the year in politics

Another review post, of yet another year that's been interesting politically...

In January the UK officially left the European Union. This was Boris Johnson’s promise that won his party a majority in the 2019 General Election – that he would “Get Brexit Done”. Except, of course, it wasn’t as simple as that. There is a general reluctance to honestly assess the problems the UK is facing as a result of Brexit. Instead the government line seems to be that everything is going fine and if it’s not going fine, that’s the fault of those pesky Europeans.

But there are loads of things that aren’t going fine. Earlier this year there was a lot of coverage about the shortage of lorry drivers, due to Brexit. There has been a steady stream of different businesses that have been badly affected by new import and export barriers. More recently, a trade deal with Australia looks like it is going to be a disaster for Welsh farmers. We still don’t know what is going to happen with regards to Northern Ireland where the peace agreements signed in the mid-90s are dependent on open borders with the Republic. It’s all a mess and the people who are meant to be sorting it out keep quitting.

Throughout the year there have also been revelations of government sleaze and corruption at an unparalleled level. From Boris Johnson purloining funds to pay for expensive flat furnishings, to preferential treatment for political donors when emergency contracts related to the pandemic were awarded, through to the media breaking story after story of government ministers and advisors flouting covid restrictions and partying while the rest of the country suffered, it seems to have been a non-stop train of grubbiness, pilfering and backhanders.

This has led to an interesting phenomenon of a succession of Tory ministers going out onto the interview circuit to peddle the official lie (sic) to try and mitigate public anger, only for new evidence to be presented, which then prompts an admission that, yes, they have been naughty. The Prime Minister doesn’t seem to care that he is making his loyal acolytes look like chumps time after time. And yet he still seems to have a ready list of people willing to go out and lie for him and then be exposed as liars themselves. Clearly they aren’t that smart, that they keep doing it.

In comparison to the never-ending corruption circus in Westminster, the Welsh Government looks stable and boring, even. We had a Senedd election this year and everybody was surprised that Labour did as well as they did, retaining governmental power again. 

Senedd election leaflets

The Conservatives made gains too, at the expense of the various warring factions that used to be UKIP. I interpret that as evidence that the Tories are now very right wing, because they seem to have hoovered up those votes and hollowed out their opponents to the right.

Plaid Cymru didn’t make any gains in the Senedd, which was disappointing for people with a preference for Welsh Independence. It feels like much of the energy has been lost from the Independence movement. That may be due to lockdowns and living through the pandemic perma-crisis, but there has also been a lot of nastiness within the big independence organisation, Yes Cymru.

As the UK Government lurched from embarrassment to embarrassment in 2020, Yes Cymru membership grew to 17,000. However, it had dropped to less than 9,000 by the time of the vote on the future of the organisation in early December 2021. There have been some long-running toxic rows on Twitter. None of these rows are about the big questions of independence; instead they have almost all been focused on trans rights and opinions held by some people within the movement.

This seems to have completely derailed Yes Cymru as an organisation. I have heard some mutterings that the whole trans rights issue blew up after the UK Government formed a ‘Union Task Force’ to look at countering the growing independence movement. I feel it’s an overreach to claim the trans rights issue was a false flag used to splinter a progressive movement. Similar debates have taken place in the Green Party and in other movements, so it’s not unique to Yes Cymru. But it has damaged the organisation, taking away impetus and causing it to stagnate. Back in March I was planning to start blogging more on issues related to Independence, but the toxicity in the movement kind of put me off. I’m still a member of Yes Cymru, although I’m not really sure why.

So it has been an interesting year, politically. One more outcome of the Senedd election is a change of health minister, which in turn seems to have delayed work starting on some behind the scenes changes that will have an impact on my job. It’s one of those rare occasions when a politics news story has an effect on me personally. Or at least an effect I notice.

Senedd 2021 post-election review

Well the election took place last Thursday. Most of the results came in on Friday and the final couple of regional lists were counted on Saturday. We had one more leaflet arrive after I published my review last week. It was from Labour and took them into the outright lead in terms of literature. 

The updated graph looks like this now:

For the first time in my chronicles of election bumf there were more leaflets from "other parties" combined than from the main contenders. That included the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party who were trying to become main contenders. 

There was an uptick in leaflets from all the main parties compared to the 2019 General Election when it feels like nobody was really trying. UKIP reappeared on the radar this time, although that might well be a 'dead cat bounce'. In fact, that is one of the most interesting aspects of this Senedd Election - the absolute failure of the right wing parties to score seats.

In 2016, UKIP gained 7 seats, mainly off the regional lists. The EU referendum was the big thing that year, with a month to go. However, since then those 7 Senedd members have fallen out with each other multiple times, sitting as 'Independents' or representing other parties. Hence why there were sitting MSs from Abolish the Assembly and the Brexit Party when the Senedd dissolved for this election.

The funniest comment I saw on Twitter about the right wing collapse was that Abolish the Assembly wanted to get rid of Welsh democracy, and then Welsh democracy turned around and voted to get rid of Abolish the Assembly. They claim they will be back but it's hard to imagine them surviving five years without a base in the Senedd. Meanwhile UKIP did incredibly poorly, and Reform UK, which was the Brexit Party two years ago, similarly made little impact.

UKIP, Reform UK and, to an extent, Abolish, were all pushing the same main policy point - get rid of the Welsh Parliament. But the original primary reasons that drew people to UKIP and Reform UK, the push for Brexit, have been robbed from them by the Conservatives. If people aren't happy with devolution and Wales governing itself within the current limits established by Westminster, then the Welsh Conservative Party are firmly Unionist and the natural home for the regressive right given their current stance on immigration, the EU, foreign affairs, and London calling the shots in the United Kingdom. 

Certainly, I would interpret the rise in seats for the Conservatives as hollowing out the hard right wing party vote, and combined with the infighting and rebranding and, let's be honest, toxic personalities involved in those hard right parties, those Conservatie policy shifts were enough to capture the voters they had previously bled to the right. 

So will any of these parties be sending me bumf in the next election? I wouldn't bet on it. But who knows? The regularity of elections these days mean we are probably due a General Election soon enough. We will definitely be getting one in 2024. The next Senedd election will be in 2026 unless something totally unexpected happens. 

Meanwhile, a wad of leaflets are going in my recycling bin tonight!

Senedd 2021 Election Leaflets Review & Ranking

With less than a week to go to the Senedd Election, here is a review of the political literature we have recieved so far. I introduced the scoring template in a preview post, but to recap, parties earn points for SMART goals, the number of leaflets, being bilingual, contact details, candidate photos, and endorsements. Parties are docked points for vague objectives, throwing shade - 1 point per target, photos of politicians from other parties, photos of the area that don't include the candidate, stock photos, and typos. I'm also going to list "pandemic points" as a possible tiebreaker.

As of this post we have received 20 pieces of post so I am going to list them by most leaflets then alphabetical order, which means we start with Labour.

Party: Labour

Number of items: 4. 2 of them are general for the list votes and 2 were from Vaughan Gething, the constuency candidate. Only 2 were bilingual, so 6 points

Quite like this design

SMART goals: 3 points - not many, as the leaflets tended to focus on what "Welsh Labour has delivered" rather than making promises. I like the idea of a new national forest - and that's a measurable goal. We will either have one or we won't.

Contact details: a total of 10 ways to get in touch with either generic Labour or Vaughan himself.

Relevant photos: 10, including lots of Vaughan in the consituency. All 4 regional list candidates had pics. Including the one called Mr Death. (He's never going to be health minister, is he!)

Endorsements: 6 different ones. Vaughan got an endorsement off Lynda Thorne who is one of my local councillors who has been very helpful in the past.

Vague objectives: -7. Including to make Wales "a greener country".

Shade: -2. Main targets are the Tories who get unfavourable comparisons across a lot of policy areas. Plaid Cymru apparently "want to put up barriers to our neighbours just over the border".

Irrelevant photos: 0

Typos: -1

TOTAL = (35-10) = 25. I think this is the most points Labour have ever scored in one of these rundowns. True, they racked up the easy points with the contact details, but overall their literature is a lot more positive than it has been in previous campaigns. If there was more detail to their goals they would have scored even higher.

Pandemic Points: 10! Vaughan Gething mentioned it a lot in his 2 leaflets. But then he is the health minister so I think that's reasonable. 

Party: Liberal Democrats

Number of items: 4. These all came like letters in proper envelopes. We had 2 from the local candidate, Alex Wilson, and 2 from the regional list candidate, Rodney Berman. All 4 mailings were a letter and leaflet, so 8 pieces of literature in total, all bilingual = a whopping 16 points.

Comms note: one of the leaflets is a CV of the candidate, which is quite a nice piece of literature. Given the lack of space I'm not sure why they needed to include his hobby of running a theatre group, though.

#TopTip: Only include necessary information on a CV

SMART goals: 3 - not much really that could be measureable. A lot of space on the regional list leaflets is used up explaining how to vote tactically and "lend your vote" to the Liberal Democrats. 

"Pssst! Lend us a vote, mister..."

Contact details: 3

Relevant photos: 9

Endorsements: 2

Vague objectives: -7. Things like "better schools and hospitals" are laudable, but not specific.

Shade: There's a personal swipe at "our current MS", ie.e. Vaughan Gething, but they don't mention his name. In it's own way that's extra-insulting. Plus "The Conservatives simply don't have the answers for Wales' future" while Labour "is a wasted vote" and "Plaid are focusing on consitutional issues ahead of the COVID recovery." While asking Labour voters to lend a vote to them, they say that could have kept UKIP out of the Senedd last time. I'm going to count that as shade too, so the total shade points are -5.

Irrelevant photos: -1 for a stock photo.

Typos: 0

TOTAL = (33-13) = 20, a respectable score

Pandemic Points: 3

Party: Plaid Cymru

Number of items: 4. 2 general ones and 2 for the local candidate, Nasir Adam. All bilingual, so 8 points.

Is it just me, or is this Labour's colour scheme...?

SMART goals: 11. Lots of these including specific numbers. 1000 more doctors for the NHS. 5000 more nurses and other healthcare professionals. 50,000 new homes. And a promise of an Independence Referendum before 2026.

As a note, just because a goal is SMART doesn't actually make it smart. I have grave doubts an extra 1,000 doctors could be recruited in just 5 years.

Contact details: 4

Relevant photos: 10 - lots of photos on Nasir in action including on a community litter-pick wearing a t-shirt that riffs on the cover of Straight Outta Compton by NWA. An interesting photo choice. Judging by these leaflets, Plaid have one approved photo of party leader Adam Price, which must appear on all their literature. Just that one photo. No others.

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: -10. Lots of aspirational stuff like "a fair deal for families". What does that even mean?

Shade: The thing about encouraging tactical voting is that you end up throwing shade on parties by just saying they can't win. That's said about the Greens and the Lib Dems. Generally though they don't really go after anyone. -2 points.

Irrelevant photos: 3 stock photos! -3 points. 

Typos: It's not a typo but on the leaflets from Nasir, he lists 4 pledges on one leaflet and 3 pledges on another leaflet and the pledges are different. So I'm going to ding a point for inconsistency. -1

TOTAL = (33-16) = 17

Pandemic Points: 1

Party: Conservative Party

Number of items: 2 bilingual leaflets = 4 points.

SMART goals: 5. Promises of 1,200 more doctors but only 3,000 extra nurses. 5,000 more teachers and lots of big new roads, all heading out of Wales, incidentally. Also a very cunningly phrased promise about council tax - constituency candidate Leighton Rowlands will "vote to fund a council tax freeze".

Contact details: 2

Relevant photos: 3

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: -5, including "more police on our streets". How many more?

Shade: Just the one reference to Labour failing Wales before the pandemic. -1 point.

Irrelevant photos: -5. Stock photos of policemen, a hospital, a motorway.

Typos: 0

TOTAL = 14-11 = 3 points

Pandemic Points: 1

Party: Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party

Number of items: 1 (saes yn unig)

SMART goals: 0, unless you count the name of the party

Contact details: 0

Relevant photos: 0

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: Do we count hashtags? #SaveWales #SavetheUnion. They reckon a vote for them will bring about one education system, one health service and one government. No real detail on what that would look like. I'm going to give them -2 for the hashtags.

Shade: This leaflet doesn't say anything beyond slogans.

Irrelevant photos: 2 stock photos, one of the Senedd with a red cross through it and a landscape. -2 points

Typos: 0

TOTAL = (1-4) = -3

Pandemic Points: 0

Party: Freedom Alliance 

(This appears to be some kind of anti-Lockdown party. There are also are a few conspiracist-tinged phrases in their literature, like "the current political structure and its controllers".)

Number of items: 1 (saes yn unig, although it does say "For the love of Cymru vote for freedom")

SMART goals: I guess "no lockdowns, no curfews" could be measureable. A generous 2.

Contact details: 3, including a QR code.

Relevant photos: 1 photo of the constituency candidate, Alan Golding.

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: This whole screed is a vague objective, starting with "a new way of doing politics is needed". Alan promises to return Wales to a position "where people matter more than our politicians". This will be through "honest conversations" and asking "difficult questions that need to be asked". To be honest by the time I got to the appeal to "common sense solutions", I had checked out. However, a quick run through brought me to a tally of 19 vague objectives. A new record. 

Shade: All other policial parties and "career politicians". And their controllers too I guess. I'm going to just give -1 point as he is the only candidate to throw shade on the controllers. 

Irrelevant photos: 0

Typos: 0

TOTAL = (7-20) = -13

Pandemic Points: doesn't actually mention the pandemic, despite claiming "Lockdowns have plunged the Uk into unimaginable debt, caused a national mental health crisis, devastated our children's education, and have been directly responsible for many avoidable deaths from cancer, heart disease and suicide." Still, 0 pandemic points. 

Party: Independent (David Rolfe)

Number of items: 1 (saes yn unig) - the smallest leaflet received so far.

SMART goals: There was no room for any on the leaflet.

Contact details: 4

Relevant photos: 1, of the man himself, David Rolfe.

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: David listed 3 bullet points, but with no details, they all count as vague objectives so -3 points.

Shade: David claims to be "An independent voice among the political chaos of mainstream parties" but he doesn't actually throw shade on anyone. 0 points.

Irrelevant photos: 0

Typos: there's a word missing in the legally required text on the leaflet. -1

TOTAL = (6-4) = 2

Party: Propel

Number of items: 1 bilingual leaflet = 2 points

SMART goals: "We will end Welsh lockdowns". OK. Well I guess that's measurable. It also mentions that Propel candidates have signed a "Contract with Wales" to introduce 10 Acts in the Welsh Parliament. The leaflet invites me to look them up online, but I'm not really that invested. So there may be details there that would turn them into SMART goals. I'm only giving 1 point though.

Contact details: 3 social media channels

Relevant photos: 1, of leader Neil McEvoy. And his signature. Which potentially gives graphologists a deeper insight into Neil's personality.

Don't need to ask for his autograph

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: the summary of the Contract with Wales lists 4 vague objectives. There is another vague objective listed as part of their proposed Coronavirus Recovery Act. So a total of -5.

Shade: Nothing. 

Irrelevant photos: 1 landscape stock photo, so -1

Typos: 0

TOTAL = (7-6) = 1

Pandemic Points: 0

Party: Reform UK 

(This used to be the Brexit Party)

Number of items: 1 (saes yn unig)

SMART goals: The one measureable goal is to halve the number of councils in Wales from 22 to 11. They are also promising no more full scale lockdowns. 2 points.

Contact details: 3 social media channels

Relevant photos: 2. There's a photo of the local consituency candidate Alan Pick, and one of party leader Nathan Gill (who was previously elected to the Senedd as a UKIP candidate and then quit that party).

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: They want to reform a lot of things but don't say how. I counted 5 vague objectives.

Shade: They accuse Welsh Labour of keeping children out of schools without good reasons. Otherwise, they use a good chunk of the leaflet to claim that 50% of people don't vote in Welsh elections so seem to be trying to cultivate people who don't vote rather than steal voters off other parties. So that's just the 1 shade point for the Welsh Labour reference.

Appealing to people who normally can't be arsed

Irrelevant photos: 0

Typos: 0

TOTAL = (8-6) = 2

Pandemic Points: 0

Party: UKIP

Number of items: 1 (saes yn unig)

SMART goals: They want a referendum to scrap the Senedd. They also want to cut alcohol duty and scrap business rates for small companies. I'm going to give them 3 points.

Contact details: 0

Relevant photos: 6 of their list candidates and Neil Hamilton who is the party leader (and is beginning to look like the Emperor Palpatine), so 7 points in total.

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: Lots of comments like "UKIP Stands against the knee-taking cultural vandals who want to erase Wales' history by removing statues to its fallen heroes." Talk about fighting imaginary enemies. 

Culture warriors screaming at clouds

There's other stuff too like ending illegal immigration and funding the NHS instead of sending foreign aid, which has echoes of the lies told during the Leave campaign about all that money that could be spent on the NHS and which then disappeared. I counted 9 vague objectives.

Shade: Lots of it. The Tories and Reform UK "are desperate to keep their snouts in the trough", the Abolish the Assembly Party weren't nasty enough to displaced people in a migrant camp, Mark Drakeford "cosies up to Plaid Cymru who want to destroy the UK and drag Wales back into the EU." They mention the EU a few times. It's clearly a bogeyman for them. The only people they don't mention are the Liberal Democrats, which must be quite demoralising for them in a way. -5 points.

Irrelevant photos: 0

Typos: 0

TOTAL = (11-14) = -3

Pandemic Points: 0

Party: Worker's Party

Number of items: 1 bilingual leaflet, so 2 points

SMART goals: 1 (free bus travel for kids)

Contact details: 3

Relevant photos: 4. (3 photos of the people I think are the named candidates and 1 of George Galloway, party leader, who is also on the regional list.)

Endorsements: 0

Vague objectives: 8, at least. But a lot of statements that aren't anything, like, for example: "There should be no homelessness in Wales... Affordable housing projects are not affordable for normal people." There's no actual commitment to do anything.

Shade: there's a swipe at "big business" but no mention of any other parties. 0.

Irrelevant photos: 0

Typos: 0

TOTAL = (10-8) = 2

Pandemic Points: 1

And that, dear readers is it, for now. Well done if you have made it this far. Hopefully you will get your strength back in time to vote on Thursday.

When religion and politics intersect

Political discourse took an interesting swerve over Easter. The Conservatives put out a meme poster on Good Friday that caught my attention.

From a theological point of view, the use of an empty cross to mark the day the gospels report Jesus was crucified, is slightly ironic. From a political point of view, the symbolism is equally as empty. I was left feeling this was posturing along similar lines to the insistence on Union flags being flown from government buildings and being in the background of Zoom interviews. It's a nationalist tangent trying to link in to a cultural heritage of being a 'Christian country'. The Tories were trying this ten years ago (I blogged about it angrily then), and it's making a reappearance.

The linking of politics with religion is often included in lists of 'signs of fascism'. So it wasn't a surprise to see comparisons on Twitter of the Conservative meme with Nazi propaganda.

Previously, there have been British political parties that have tried to co-opt Christianity for their cause. This is one such example:

This poster campaign was some time ago now. The BNP has disappeared, outflanked by UKIP, the Brexit Party and the Conservative Party, which seems to have moved to the right with each passing election.

If overtly aligning with religion is a known tactic of the far right, then what does it say about a government when it starts aligning with religion?

In a way, this intersection of politics and religion feels almost inevitable after the power demonstrated in harnessing the white evangelical vote by the Republican Party in America. (75% of white evangelicals voted for Trump last year; the theological label is practically synonomous with Republicanism now.) The recent Conservative electoral success has been driven by following the right wing American playbook and the government are doubling down on it. So it's only natural that they would eventually come and try to claim religion.

But not to be outdone, Labour leader Keir Starmer decided to do a publicity piece for Easter by visiting a church.

In his (now deleted) video, Keir describes the way the church in question, Jesus House, a large, black majority Pentecostal Church in London, has supported people during the pandemic, including recently hosting a vaccination centre.

This caused a slight problem for Keir, though. Jesus House has a track record of opposing LGBT+ rights and is accused of promoting "conversion therapy" to "cure" gay people of being gay. Conversion therapy is controversial. It's often likened to torture.

As can be imagined, this visit did not play well with Keir's support base. Here's an example.

It's surprising that Keir didn't know there could be controversy attached to this visit. Both Theresa May and Boris Johnson were criticised for visiting Jesus House, for exactly the same reason.

I'd put Keir's mis-step down to religious illiteracy. I get the sense that some politicians see "religion" as some kind of old fashioned benign relict of days past, acting as a stable force for good in society. But not all religion is like that.

Keir may have thought he could go along for the photo opportunity and praise the way Jesus House is hosting a Covid vaccination centre, and that would be it. But 'pick and choose' is a difficult game to play with religion because fundamentalism is a complete package. A politician can try to separate out religiously-motivated activity they agree with and activity they don't, but an unequivocal endorsement of a church implies endorsement across the breadth of the espoused creed.

For the fundamentalist evangelical church in question, supporting people during the pandemic and their opposition to marriage equality are both motivated by their belief system. There is no way of differentiating between the two in terms of where they come from. From their perspective, the wellspring is the same - trying to 'be true to the Bible'.

In his subsequent apology, Keir says he didn't know about Jesus House's opposition to LGBT+ rights, and that it was a "mistake". He took down the video on Easter Monday.

I predict there are going to be more attempts to use Christianity as a political weapon. The Conservatives have been cynically smarter in just co-opting Christian symbolism without the burden of having to endorse any activities motivated by a belief system. It's a fundamentally empty appeal to a sense of "Christian" without having to pick their way through the specifics of a creed.

They did it again on Easter Sunday.

General Election 2017 - looking at the Tory leaflets

In my first blog post about the 2017 Election leaflets I only looked at material from the Pirate Party, Plaid Cymru and Labour, because they were the only ones I had received. After I tweeted the link the Plaid Cymru candidate, Ian Titherington, replied to me. We had a bit of a chat and he said he had received leaflets from the Green Party and the Tories. Ian doesn't live that far away from me so I'm not sure if that's just people not willing to leaflet our street or what.

Anyway, in fairness to Ian, and because he got back to me, here is another scan of one of his leaflets. Of note is his bio, confirming that he lives in Grangetown. (Again, click on it to read it bigly.)

My only criticism of this is that as he lives local, the team could have swapped out some of the stock photos and used, say, a picture of a local school, or local businesses. The empty shot of Penarth Pier is arty, but it would have been better if Ian had been in it.

You can also see the "Defending Wales" message quite clearly on that leaflet - defend the nation, defend the economy and defend the people. And the Brexit promise of the best deal for Wales, that everyone is promising and realistically no one can deliver. The UK is going to get screwed on that.

Anyway, almost as if they were alerted to the fact they had been  missed out on the blog, the Tories got in on the act. Two leaflets arrived yesterday through the post, one addressed to me and one to Cathy.

In stark contrast to Ian's intro, Bill Rees the Tory candidate doesn't tell us where he lives. Perhaps because he lives in Oxfordshire. The Tories have done this for a few elections now as it seems they can't find a suitable local candidate.

Bill's leaflets are plastered with the "strong and stable" meme that has been a feature of Tory campaigning and both have an entry for perhaps the most obvious caption competition: "Bill Rees Standing With Theresa May" next to photos of him standing with Theresa May.

One thing - does no one go to these photo ops with nothing better than a phone camera? I mean, come on, invest in something with a flash for goodness sake.

Anyway, Bill has been touring the constituency. I think the family photo is on Splott Road. I bet his kids loved being taken there. I hope they got to go to the nice play park round the corner. Bill makes sure he is in his Penarth Pier shot as well, both with the family and on his own. Also, standing next to the Rumney Partnership Hub sign, which I am sure he was fully cognizant of before being parachuted in as a candidate. Fair play, that's a clever idea. The association is that he is involved in community action but he doesn't make any claims about it.

Inside one of the leaflets, there is another dimly lit photo of Bill with Theresa May. They both seem very happy to see each other. He also might be supporting local businesses as he could be buying an ice cream on Penarth Pier. It's hard to tell.

Also on that leaflet is something that I think might be a misstep, really. It's a contrast between Theresa May and a "Coalition of Chaos". (Theresa should know all about chaotic coalitions, having been Home Secretary for five years in a coalition, although this isn't mentioned.)

Then it says: "Think Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is never going to happen? DON'T BE SO SURE" followed by headlines of unexpected wins for Trump and Vote Leave.

I read that and thought, 'What? The Tories think Jez might actually win? They think it's a possibility?' If so, I think they could well be far more optimistic about Labour's chances than Labour are, even. Putting those headlines in seems to imply it's a much closer race than anyone seriously thinks.

It seems to me to be a really dangerous strategy. You're basically saying the guy you're up against is a real challenger. It makes you look scared. Less strong. Less stable.

I doubt the headlines on Friday will be as unexpected as some of the headlines we saw in 2016, but the Tories are the only ones who seem to think it's possible.

Looking forward to the Welsh Assembly electioneering

Long-time readers of this blog may know that I have reviewed election leaflets posted through my door (here's last year's General Election one). So far we have had one leaflet in the run up to this year's Welsh Assembly elections. It is being kept safe to one side to be reviewed with the others I'm anticipating will come through the door.

For some reason I didn't do a full review of election leaflets in the last Assembly elections back in 2011. I'm a bit annoyed with myself now for not doing that, but I had a lot on I guess and I didn't know posts about election leaflets would be so popular (last year's general election one was the most viewed blog post in 2015).

Of course, over time, I have collected quite a bit of data (when I've been bothered to!) and so here is a graph of the amount of election bumf that has been shoved through our doors since 2007.

Election leaflets through the letterbox 2007-2015

Some things are fairly obvious. It's a Labour safe seat but we always get a few leaflets from them, but not too many. The Liberal Democrats seem to have died off since 2010. We got none from them last year and they were prolific before that. (In fact, all their inter-election 'Focus' papers and stuff seem to have disappeared as well.) UKIP went through a 'U' of their own, with zero leaflets in 2010 to pushing the most through our letterbox in 2015. Partly I think this is because we have a Kipper in our street, which might explain why we get so many leaflets from them. (We know he's a Kipper because he puts the posters up in his windows.)

I'm interested to see what we get this year. None of the main political parties seem flush with cash or, more crucially, have many determined, committed local supporters. I think that's what's done for the Lib Dems as a force in this area. It will be interesting to see whether UKIP sustain their levels of communication. They might be saving their ammo for the EU referendum six weeks later.

Anyway, I'll rate the leaflets nearer the time, I promise. No repeat of 2011 here. In the meantime, if you want to catch up on previous ratings, here is the complete list.
General Election 2015

2012 by-election

2010 general election

2009 European Parliament elections

Welsh Assembly 2007 elections and additions

General Election Viewpoint: What no Westminster Declaration this time round? Wonder why?

Five years ago, in the run-up to the General Election, I posted an objection to the ‘Westminster Declaration’, which was an attempt to get every Christian to sign a petition to protest against various medical ethical issues and, of course, only allow heterosexual marriage to be called marriage. I wrote about it at the time because I felt it was deeply flawed when it talked about stem cell research and the plight of embryos, but didn’t mention IVF, which struck me as hypocritical.

I also didn’t like it because I thought it was mainly about the typical ‘micro-morality’ self-marginalising issues that Christians get het up about. And I felt it was probably, on balance, homophobic.

(Now I think it is definitely homophobic. There’s nothing in there about preventing divorced people from getting married again – something Jesus clearly said was a sin. There is a reference to marriage being "lifelong", but nothing explicitly about divorce. I suspect the hypocrisy is because there are lots of divorced-and-remarried people sitting in the evangelical churches this Declaration was pitched to, but not many gay people.)

Anyway, this gained traction. Some of my Christian Facebook friends signed it. I know people who were at churches where everyone was asked to sign it. It was supported by groups like Christian Voice and bloggers like the self-styled Archbishop Cranmer. It was supposed to be a big deal.

I also knew Christians who didn’t sign it, for a variety of reasons – the language, the way it sought to enshrine Christian privilege, the distillation of the gospel into medico-legal nitpicking, the blatant homophobia.

But what’s interesting is that the Westminster Declaration hasn’t been revived, revised, updated or promoted this time around. Nobody has been posting it on Facebook saying they’ve signed it and all other true Christians should sign it too. The website is still running, but the latest news on there is from 2012. 

Why not?

Is it because gay marriage is now legal and therefore the Declaration is irrelevant? The battle has been lost.

I don’t think so. I think it’s something else.

A quick run-down of the major exponents reveals some very small-c conservative organisations. I say ‘small-c’ because none of them would publicly advocate any particular party. I know one of them, CARE, provides a rolling supply of free interns to Conservative MPs. I know someone high up in an organisation linked to CARE described their organisation as ‘conservative at heart’, although I don’t know how big the C was when he said that. It was in a discussion about party politics, so there’s an implied large C. And supporters of the Declaration were certainly right wing. Cranmer has a list of Conservative Heroes on his blog’s sidebar, starting with Maggie Thatcher, so we know whose side he’s on.

And you know what... cynically, I’d say this was an operation to swing Christians towards voting Conservative. The Westminster Declaration website listed the opinions of all the candidates on these ‘crucial’, ‘Christian’ issues. And of course, the Conservatives were more likely to be against them. Generally right-wingers get more agitated at the thought of people having control over their own bodies and freedom to express themselves. Independence of action implies independence of thought; not following the rules implies questioning authority. And where would that lead?

But then it was David Cameron’s Tory-led coalition that made gay marriage legal. That must stick in the craw of the organisations that led the Westminster Declaration. Imagine persuading people, firstly, that these issues really mattered, and then secondly, implying that they ought to vote Conservative to avoid these terrible things happening. And then, when they got their wish – a Tory government in all but name – those things happened anyway.

Talk about duped. Cameron actually called gay marriage a cause he passionately believed in. After he was PM, of course. He’s many things, but he isn’t actually stupid. You don’t alienate a group of people who might swing the election for you. There are about 6,000 Christians in most electoral seats. That’s a large lump of electorate.

CARE have gone for a different tack this year, which is much less bombastic and preachy even if it about the same old personal morality issues. The only people trying to repeat the work of 2010 are the decidedly fringe 'Christian Party' who have turned it into a 'Declaration of British Values.' Generally it seems like Christians aren't getting sucked into this again this time round.

It could even be the case that more Christians have realised that after five years of exponential foodbank growth and bedroom taxes and disabled people killing themselves before they starve to death, and tax avoidance by the very rich, and a government that went to war with Brussels to make sure bankers could get their bonuses, and scandal after scandal, there are more important things than stem cells and whether gay people can commit to love each other until death parts them.

Election communication review 2015

I can’t believe it’s three years since the last review I did, back when we had a by-election in 2012. I’m getting quite an archive of reviews.

This year some parties are standing who haven’t been in touch yet. According to one website the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, the Class War Party and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition are standing. But no election communication, no ratings on this blog.

The rules for scoring this time round are: 

Candidates score points for:

~ number of pieces of bumf through the door

~ number of definite promises they make

~ number of ways they offer you to get in touch, not including generic websites

~ number of different candidate photos, with bonus points if they are with the party leader

~ a point for bilingual Welsh/English leaflets

Candidates are dinged points for

~ the number of other people they blame for the mess we're in,

~ number of negative comments about other parties

~ photos of politicians belonging to other parties

~ meaningless ‘slogan’ promises e.g. ‘I’m going to fight for Welsh jobs’

As before, I'm going to list them alphabetically by candidates’ surname. That means we start with our current MP, Stephen Doughty. I’ve also included who they think will win.

Candidate: Stephen Doughty

Party: Labour

Bumf: 3 = 3 points

Definite promises: 12

Contact: 4

Photos: 9 (including one in an orange jumpsuit and hard hat). No pictures of him with Ed Miliband.

Bilingual: 2 (both leaflets are at least partly bilingual)

Blame: 0

Negative comments: -9 (mainly the Tories, one reference each to the Lib Dems and UKIP)

Photos of other politicians: 0

Sloganeering: -10

Comment: Nice use of endorsements on one leaflet and also a list of things he’s done as MP. He’s apparently responded to over 5,000 letters in his three years as an MP.

Who will win? Stephen would like you to re-elect him as part of a Labour Government.

TOTAL: 30 – 19 = a score of +11

Candidate: Ben Foday

Party: Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales

Bumf: 2

Definite promises: 6

Contact: 0 – all generic contact details

Photos: 6 (one used twice on the same leaflet). There’s a picture of Leanne Wood in each leaflet, but evidently Ben hasn’t met her or didn’t have his camera with him when he did.

Bilingual: 2 – (both fully bilingual with Welsh first)

Blame: 0

Negative comments: 0 (although they do say that ‘Westminster isn’t working’ and ‘Don’t let the others take your vote for granted’ so they neatly side-step getting dinged)

Other politicians: 0

Sloganeering: -5

Comment: Ben needs a better designer as several of the photos in his leaflet have been stretched out of proportion. One leaflet included a good bit talking about what Plaid have done in Parliament in the last few years.

Who will win? Plaid reckon it’s going to be a hung parliament so vote for them to ensure Wales has a stronger voice. Interesting strategy.

TOTAL: 18 – 5 = a score of +13

Candidate: John Rees-Evans

Party: UKIP

Bumf: 5 (but 2 don’t mention the candidate at all)

Definite promises: 49 (mainly based on a detailed ‘Policies for People in Wales’ leaflet – not counting any that just say UKIP supports... or UKIP opposes...)

Contact: 3 (including a QR code)

Photos: 3, possibly 4, it’s hard to be sure. Being generous, so will give him 4 points.

Bilingual: None

Blame: 2 (“the Tories and Labour have failed us”)

Negative comments: 11

Other politicians: 2 unflattering pictures of Ed Miliband, including the famous bacon sandwich pic

Sloganeering: 40 (Again, a lot of these came out of the Policies for Wales leaflet.)

Comments: UKIP are at least up front about what they want to do, but there are times when they are a bit disingenuous, e.g. talking about developing shale gas without using the word fracking. There is also a laughable disconnect between their leaflet’s promises to prevent the privatisation of the NHS and what their leaders are on record as saying. But no one gets dinged for that, so, they are off the hook.

Who will win? “UKIP are trailing Labour only very narrowly in Cardiff South & Penarth and the final result may be extremely close.” So, predicting Labour to win then...

TOTAL: 61 – 55 = a total of + 6

Candidate: Emma Warman

Party: Conservative Party

Bumf: 1

Definite promises: 2

Contact: 4 (including a Facebook profile)

Photos: 5 + 1 bonus point for a picture of her with David Cameron

Bilingual: 1

Blame: 0

Negative comments: 2

Other politicians: A bumper crop of 5

Sloganeering: 5

Comment: Emma needs to smile more in her pictures. She looks downright miserable in the photo of her handing over a big cheque to charity. (Insert your own joke here.)

Who will win? Vote Tory or get a “Coalition of Chaos” says Emma. Serious warning because the last coalition has been chaotic, I guess.

TOTAL: 16 – 12 = a total of + 4

The verdict. It looks like the Liberal Desperates have finally got tired in this constituency and given up. There’s been nothing from them. Plaid Cymru seem to have a nice candidate. UKIP are regressive, most of their definite promises are about repealing stuff or leaving various different parts of the EU. The Tories have parachuted in someone, although she did get to go down Cardiff Bay with a camera to take some photos. Shame she didn’t smile in them a bit more. Our current MP is proud of his record and his local links to the area. It’s a shame there haven’t been any minority parties pushing stuff through the door. That’s always good for this kind of blog post. 

The other thing I wish I'd done is ding people for using obvious stock photography. Ah, well, maybe in 2020.

Previous editions:

2012 by-election

2010 general election

2009 European Parliament elections

Welsh Assembly 2007 elections (plus update 1 and how I learned to my cost to make sure my wife knew to keep any bumf as well)