Caerffili election reflection

The dust is settling after Plaid Cymru's win in the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly. Several days after the election my friend Anna asked me if I was going to blog about it, and I said it was on my list of things to do. At this rate, I think I might be the last commentator to pass comment. 

Senator Whittle a few days before the win

There are some headline takeaways. It's the first time Plaid Cymru have won in Caerphilly. Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru's candidate, was standing for the 14th time in an election. It's the first election in a hundred years in Caerphilly that hasn't been won by Labour.

Oh, and Reform lost. By a considerable margin in the end. 

Turnout was high - 50% of the electorate, which was higher than in the last Senedd election. Reform tend to get people who don't usually vote to vote for them, but this time it seems like they encouraged a lot of people to venture out and vote for their main opponent.

Although they've put a brave spin on it, this was a major slap backwards for Reform. They expected to win. They had their victory party booked. Nigel had been to town a couple of times to gee up the locals with his anti-immigration dogwhistles. Reform's media cheerleaders had made the story all about them. And Reform had certainly splashed the roubles trying to get that seat in the Senedd. My friend Ben sent me pictures of all the leaflets and Reform churned out loads!

But Plaid Cymru won. Wales won. 

It's annoying that the media coverage seems to have been a) Reform came second, b) Labour got battered in a safe heartland seat, c) er, Plaid Cymru won.

Although... without the Reform angle, I'm not sure how much interest there would have been in this. I doubt the result - and Lindsay's name - would have been reported in the New York Times. I doubt (K)GB News would have had pundits staying up all night waiting for the result. (They were, apparently, quite disappointed.)

The following day this was circulating on social media. It summed up how a lot of people felt.

My main feeling was relief. I went to bed on Thursday night in a high level of anxiety. On Friday morning when I checked my phone I felt close to crying. Politics has been so relentlessly grim recently it felt so alien to be happy at an election result. 

I had reason to be anxious. I had been canvassing in Caerphilly a few times and the number of Reform placards and posters had increased over time. People said they were thinking of voting for them or were very coy on the doorsteps, which I interpreted as planning to vote Reform but being embarrased to admit it. There was fear too. An Asian family who ran a shop said the rise of Reform made them feel afraid for the first time about living in Caerphilly. I hope they celebrated the Plaid Cymru win.

Canvassing wasn't always easy. I got soaked to the skin in Ystrad Mynach. But the result makes it worth it. 

Ystrad Mynach before the deluge

The general consensus among people I've talked to is that this election isn't a very reliable indicator of how the Senedd election next year will go. This was a straight 'first past the post' election and, like many other commentators, I have a feeling people chose to vote Plaid Cymru as they had the best chance of beating Reform. As I said back in August after the Grangetown council election, it's hard to make floating voters stick. 

But hope springs eternal. Caerphilly's new Senedd member is a great advocate for his home town and the surrounding communities. I hope the people who voted for him see that and choose to vote for him again in May next year. 

Pigeons and politics - September 2025 review of the month

I haven't blogged much this month because I've been too busy to blog! But I did post about Cathy and I celebrating our 27th wedding anniversary with some on-ice punch ups watching Cardiff Devils, as well as our visit to the new Lego Shop. Plus, you can catch up on my Book of the Month (about riotous protests in the 19th Century) and my Blood Bowl match report from my 10th game of the year with Bryan. 

I also had a trip to Glasgow with work. One thing I noticed on my fleeting overnight visit is Glasgow has some of the biggest pigeons ever! They're also honoured with street art. 

Also, it appears the Doctor has got lost.

Before my all day meeting started I made it to the local Celtic Shop to pick up a couple of pin badges for my growing sports badge collection.

My main focus this month has been canvassing. There is a by-election in Caerphilly and I've been up a couple of times to support the campaign efforts.

Sara was also canvassing so we got to work together, which was really lovely.

More locally, we have started canvassing at stations during the morning commuter rush. This has mainly been me and Anna, one of the candidates in our area for the Senedd elections next year. 

I find canvassing fun. I've had lots of friendly conversations with people and it's really good exercise! (I think it's really helped me lose weight as that was my goal since getting some negative health news in April - at my end of September weigh in I had lost 10kg, which is over a stone).

In other political news I went to the Yes Caerdydd AGM where I had agreed to run a quiz. Cathy helped me put together the questions, including a brilliant picture round of famous dragons! (Well it is for Yes Cymru!) 

Jack and Elin were the winning team and had prizes of Yes Cymru tea towels along with the trophy.

In other social news, I had a very late opportunity to see the lad Connor as he made a rapid-fire visit to the Diff. We went out for French toast brunch and caught up on life. It was lovely to see him. 

The football season continues. I went to four senior level games in the month. Cardiff Dracs beat Aberystwyth in their first home win in the Cymru South for the Dracs.

It was also my 25th match at the Dracs ground.

My friend Rhys was there and made a video all about his personal connection with Gabalfa and the Dracs. If you skip forward to about 9 minutes in you'll see my cameo. 

The win over Aberystwyth was part of an unbeaten September for the Dracs. I couldn't get to all their games but I did see them beat Cwmbran Celtic in the Welsh Cup and win away at Llantwit Major.

Here's the windmill that is the reason Llantwit Major play at a ground called Windmill Lane. 

My other game this month was a disappointing defeat for Shrewsbury against Salford City. However, my youngest niece came with us and was very excited to meet the mascots!

I also caught up with my friend Jim and his lad, Nic.

A new independence movement has started! 

My footballing highlight of the month was the day after the Shrewsbury game when I watched my eldest nephew Zac play for his juniors team. He scored 4 goals in a 6-2 rout and was Man of the Match.

We have some more travels planned for this month and I'm hoping that might include another opportunity to watch Zac play. Find out next month whether I make it!

Doorstep Days - August 2025

Every month I say it's been a busy month. And August was no different. The quieter day isn't coming.  

Spotted while canvassing

The first two weeks of the month I discovered how much fun canvassing was, knocking doors on behalf of Plaid Cymru in the council by-election. I continued my election tradition and reviewed the leaflets from all the contesting parties. It was a bit weird that I was giving out some of those leaflets this time. Although the result didn't go our way, I enjoyed it a lot more than I thought I would - and the exercise did me good too. I went out canvassing or leafleting at least ten times and didn't get rained on once, which I feel is pretty good going. 

I started August with a gig on the very first night. I had some free tickets to see Catfish and the Bottlemen at the Principality Stadium, courtesy of Cathy's cousin, Adam. (He'd won them and asked if I could make use of them.) I went to the gig with Ian, which was the first time we had done something together since watching Alien: Romulus last year. I wasn't massively impressed by the headline band, but it was fun seeing Travis in their role as support act.

Pre-gig selfie

The fans got into the headliners

In the middle of the month I went on the Keep Grangetown Tidy litter-pick, on another warm morning. Litter-picks are so much nicer in the sunshine even if the amount of litter seems to be getting worse. I usually find a lost toy; this time it was a Baby Shark.

Do do do do do do do do do,
do do do do do do do do do,
do do do do do do do do do,
in the bin!

Sports-wise, I went to seven football matches, including Shrewsbury Town's opening game of the season accompanied by two of my nephews. I bought a Shrewsbury shirt because it was a nostalgia trigger. The trip to see Shrewsbury coincided with my sister and her kids being in town and we had a great time hanging out as an extended family. 

On the second Saturday of the month I drove down to Carmarthen to watch Cardiff Draconians in their first away game in the Welsh second tier. Carmarthen was a great away day. I met up with my friend Charlie, who I hadn't seen for a couple of years, and also ticked off all the ground in the Dracs's division! 

I made the most of a long weekend with three football matches and an ice hockey game on my bank holiday of sport, which included a diversion in Swindon to STEAM, the museum of the Great Western Railway. My seventh game of the month was another Dracs game, a disappointing defeat in the league cup, which is sponsored by the Welsh Blood Service and is therefore known as the "Blood Cup" (Cwpan Gwaed in Cymraeg!)

Last minute 'goalie up for the corner' excitement

Speaking of the "Blood Cup" I lost my Blood Bowl game with Bryan this month with my 'naive Norse' getting turned over by the wood elves. We have managed to get a game in every month this year so far, despite both being really busy! I still haven't picked my Blood Bowl team for September yet. But it's probably not going to be Norse...

Election reflection

Last Thursday was election day in the Cardiff Council by-election in my ward. 

Obligatory voting day selfie

I couldn't get to sleep on election night and kept checking the WhatsApp group set up for us canvassers. A little after midnight the provisional vote counts came in and they were confirmed shortly afterwards with an image of the results.

The Green Party won the seat by 44 votes. Labour came second. Plaid Cymru were the third placed party. Worries that split voting among those three parties would let Reform win proved unfounded. They placed fourth with only 13% of the vote. 

I felt sad for Neil, the Plaid Cymru candidate. He worked really hard campaigning. One of the first things he told me was that he wanted to run a positive campaign and focus on the issues not just complain about other parties - and our campaign was positive. I feel we asked people to vote for us because of what we promised, not just because we were "not Labour". 

Our campaign was in marked contrast to the Greens campaign, but I do wonder whether they can convert one time protest voters who wanted to "punish Labour" (like a Green leaflet said) into repeat voters. Personally, as a former floating voter, I don't think protest voters stick, and previous anti-Labour protest votes in Grangetown evaporated when Senedd or Westminster elections came round.

Even if it does turn out to be a one off, it was quite the result for the Greens - their first ever Cardiff Council seat and their first by-election win in Wales. I met the new Green councillor on Saturday morning and he told me it hadn't really sunk in yet.

And now some statting... Turnout was only marginally over 26% of the electorate, meaning only a quarter of people who could vote bothered to vote. From the time I spent canvassing I suspect a reasonable percentage of people were away on holiday on election day and possibly hadn't bothered to sort a postal or proxy vote. This election was held on relatively short notice and certainly wasn't in anyone's plans when they were booking their summer holidays. Turnout was 35% in the 2022 council election, which rather spoils the comparisons of vote share, however, I will give it a go...

In 2022, all four Labour candidates were elected with over 50% of the vote. In this by-election the Labour vote dropped by about half. In 2022, Plaid Cymru and the Greens campaigned together in the "Common Ground" alliance and came second with about 26% of the vote. The former Labour votes presumably went mainly to the Greens and Plaid Cymru this time round, as their combined share of the vote was about what Common Ground got last time plus the missing Labour vote. 

Meanwhile, it looks like Reform took a good chunk of their votes from the Tories. Propel, another pro-independence party, scored about 10%. The Tories and Liberal Democrats finished bottom of the heap. We didn't see a single leaflet from the Liberal Democrats and it really feels like they are completely finished as a force in Cardiff now. Strange to think the Lib Dems held all the council seats for Grangetown as recently as 2012. 

On a personal note, I enjoyed getting stuck in to my first active electoral campaign since going "Big P" political. Canvassing was more fun than I expected. I was a bit out of my comfort zone at first, but many people wanted to chat about what they thought the key issues were to a stranger who knocked on their door. I have developed an intense dislike for Ring doorbells though - both the chime, and the mild paranoid feeling that people are looking through the camera and deciding not to open the door. 

Certain conversations will stick with me -  chatting to the people smoking outside the Cornwall pub (who we had heard chanting "Starmer's a wanker" at Labour canvassers a few minutes previously), the lady who immediately left her house to go and vote when I knocked on her door on election day, the woman who told me Labour had "mesmerised" her ethnic community and she kept telling all her friends to vote Plaid Cymru instead. Only one guy told me the biggest issue that needed to be fixed was to "stop the boats". He didn't tell me who he was going to vote for, but I felt pretty confident I could guess. 

It's a good thing I enjoyed canvassing. There is another council by-election coming up over in East Cardiff and it's likely there will be a Senedd by-election in Caerphilly in early November, after the tragic death of the sitting Senedd member there. And then we have the full Senedd election next year, then the next full council election is due in 2027, and then some time in 2028 or 2029 we will get a general election. 

And that's if everything goes to plan, but politics has been volatile in the past 15 years, so it would be a foolhardy to bet on the future election schedule not changing! 

Election Day! (Cardiff Council by-election)

It's election day in the council by-election. Three late pieces of literature arrived yesterday. This included a fourth leaflet from Plaid Cymru - the only one I haven't been out delivering myself. 

A Labour postcard arrived with the post. It's monolingual. Honestly, I quite liked the minimalist approach on one side. 

The other side shows the Labour candidate in Blaenclydach Street, which is where he lived as a child.  

The other leaflet we received was from the Green Party - a big double A4 spread. Cathy said they are trying to use up all the trees.

I have looked at the picture on the front several times and I can't decide if it's real or whether the crowd behind are photoshopped. I recognise the candidate but I don't know who the other people are.

It's a hung jury in our house about the next picture. I thought it was quite effective in trying to get across a message that people are planning to vote Green. Cathy thought it was "filler".

In a conversation online, a Green Party member told me that several Liberal Democrats joined the Greens after the Lib Dems entered their disastrous coalition with the Tories in 2010. That was their explanation for why so many Lib Dem tactics from 15 years ago are reappearing in Green campaign literature now. Like dodgy graphs. 

I would question whether putting another party in the lead on your election literature is a good thing. The Tories did something similar back in 2017 when they compared Jeremy Corbyn's chances to other "unlikely victories" like the Brexit Leave vote and Trump's first win. And of course, Corbyn forced a hung parliament in a much closer contest than most commentators expected.

We will find out whether it makes a difference tonight! 

Council by-election leaflet review

Since 2007, I've been reviewing election leaflets on this blog (there's a list on this page) but this year is the first time I've had 'skin in the game' because I've been out delivering some of them! (ICYMI, I joined Plaid Cymru last month!)

We are having a by-election because one of our four Labour councillors resigned recently. (Probably because of events covered in this rather unpleasant news story that doesn't paint the Cardiff Labour Party in a nice light, and I can understand why she left.) The councillor who resigned is someone I've talked to about problems with a local park being closed, and, on a personal level, I thought she was a good councillor. But she's left a party I feel has been failing Cardiff as a city for a while now. 

And the result is this by-election. So, with just a couple of days left before polling day, here is a run-down and review of the electoral campaign leaflets that I've seen. Looking back at the council election in 2022 and the General Election last year, I didn't do my usual thing of awarding and deducting points. So, I don't feel too hypocritical not doing it this year either. (Obviously, this year, I think everyone should vote for Plaid Cymru.)

I should also point out that not all these leaflets have come through our letterbox. I have been given some of them by other people. It's been fun being in the canvassing WhatsApp group and seeing people sharing different leaflets they have received - usually new ones ended up coming through our door too, so it was a bit spoilery. But that's fine. 

I'm going to assess the leaflets on whether they are bilingual, their 'photo effort' and also the number of dragons or other Welsh symbols that appear on leaflets. The dragon quotient (DQ) is important. I enjoy seeing graphs and 'race' or 'winning' diagrams so will mention them too. I'm also going to sum up their overall message.

I'm going to do this in rough order the leaflets arrived, and first off the mark were Labour. They may have had the advantage because they knew their councillor was resigning, and as they run the council they had some sway over when the election was set. Their 'Grangetown Labour News' and a generic leaflet actually arrived before I knew there was a by-election.

Party: Labour / Llafur

Number of leaflets: 3 (candidate leaflet, Grangetown Labour News, generic Welsh Labour "Delivering for you" leaflet)

Candidate: Khuram Chowdhry (only features on one leaflet)

Photo effort: 1 of Khuram by Grange Gardens; a group shot of Khuram with Labour canvassers. Grangetown Labour News had head shots of the three incumbent Labour councillors who haven't resigned. The generic leaflet had five photos of Eluned Morgan, the First Minister on it. There were also some stock photos and the artist's rendering of what the new Channel View Development will look like, if it's ever finished. It seems to have been stuck in a half-built stage for months. 

Cymraeg: Yes, all 3 leaflets. 

Dragon Quotient: 1, an arty one on Khuram's candidate leaflet

Graphs: none

Overall message: Labour and Khuram say they know what the problems are - parking, litter, antisocial behaviour etc. And they have plans in place to fix it. Although, as they are the party that runs the council, it seems fair to ask why they haven't already put those plans into action and fixed it. There was a nice nod to the community litter-picking group in the newsletter. On the candidate leaflet, Khuram lists a load of things he would like to see happen - things like "protecting our parks and green spaces", when the Labour Council has approved plans to build on a chunk of The Marl, one of Grangetown's few parks. It does feel like all the things he wants to do would put him in direct opposition to most of his fellow Labour councillors. 

Party: Propel

Number of leaflets: 2 (both candidate leaflets)

Candidate: Vincent Yewlett (local guy who runs a business on Clare Road)

Photo effort: 1 candidate photo used on both leaflets, of Vincent stood on Clare Road, 2 different photos of Vincent and Propel party leader, Neil McAvoy, looking at 'problems' - the overgrown river bank and some rubbish strewn streets. Vincent is wearing a Wales retro football top in those photos. 

Cymraeg: both leaflets were bilingual

Dragon Quotient: Propel have a dragon in the logo and Vincent had a dragon on his football shirt in two of the photos, so that's a total of 4 across the leaflets. 

Graphs: none

Overall message: Vincent goes hard on his local status and claims to be the only candidate "walking the streets" of Grangetown. Propel are the "new Welsh alternative", apparently. 

Party: Plaid Cymru

Number of leaflets: 3 (2 candidate leaflets and 1 generic leaflet about how Plaid Cymru will fix NHS waiting lists)

Candidate: Neil Roberts

Photo from delivering the leaflets

Photo effort: 2 different head shots of Neil and a group photo with canvassers next to the bandstand in Grange Gardens. A couple of photos of problems - fly-tipping and a new development that is blocking out light for residents. The NHS leaflet is all stock photos. 

Cymraeg: wrth gwrs!

Dragon Quotient: Plaid Cymru use a daffodil in their logo and it features as an embellishment four times besides the logos. No dragons, though. 

Graphs: 1, showing the recent YouGov national poll that shows Plaid ahead generally in Wales.

Overall message: Neil offers a change from Labour and promises to challenge the Labour run council as "a fresh voice for Grangetown". He also wants to celebrate the diverse communities in Grangetown and challenge divisive rhetoric, with a direct reference to dogwhistle terms used by the Labour Prime Minister recently. Having talked to him, I know Neil wanted to run a positive campaign focusing on his ideas for improving life in the community rather than criticising other parties - a different approach than most of the other leaflets we received.

Party: Green Party

Number of leaflets: 5 (3 candidate leaflets and 2 attack pieces aimed at Labour)

Candidate: Matt Youde (knocked on our door while I was out canvassing; Cathy said he seemed nice)

Photo effort: multiple reuse of two photos taken in Sevenoaks Park (not Grange Gardens for a change) and one of Matt with his arms folded in an alley next to a big pile of fly-tipped waste. Two photos of another chap, who I think is the prospective Senedd candidate in next year's election but it doesn't actually say that. One of the hit pieces has a picture of Kier Starmer - which is one more picture of him than all the Labour leaflets combined. 

Cymraeg: all 5 pieces are bilingual

Dragon Quotient: zero! (Disappointing)

Graphs: a dodgy line graph based on "doorknocking data"; a race showing Labour and the Green runners leaving everyone else behind; a set of results from the last council election that claims Greens placed second, even though the Greens were in an alliance with Plaid Cymru for that election and the result was therefore a vote for both parties.

Technically not true

Also, technically, not entirely true

Overall message: Despite three candidate leaflets, I don't think Matt is offering much different from other candidates. He talks about litter - and, across all five leaflets, that is the only thing mentioned that could be considered an environmental issue. Nothing about the climate at all. Rent caps get mentioned several times. 

However, what is really different about the Greens' campaign is their two hit pieces - one is a letter from a former Labour councillor who has now joined the Greens and the other just says "Punish Labour, Vote Green!" I mean, that's a take, and I'm sure this will appeal to some people who are really angry with Labour but long-term you want to be more than just a protest vote because those don't stick. 

Wanted: angry voters!

Party: None (Independent)

Number of leaflets: 1

Candidate: Ahmed Abdillahi Abdi Samater

Photo effort: 1 candidate photo

Cymraeg: yes

Dragon Quotient: zero

Graphs: none

Overall message: quite positive, but the leaflet is a bit all over the place in terms of topics. Also the text was all centrally aligned and I find that hard to read.

Party: Conservative

Number of leaflets: 1 (given this landed alongside a leaflet for a builder, I suspect this was delivered by a leaflet delivery firm rather than a volunteer)

Candidate: James Hamblin (a Tory I know told me James lives in London but will be a Senedd candidate next year, so this is really just about him being able to say that he ran for the council as part of his Senedd campaign)

Photo effort: pretty decent - six different photos on one A4 double-sided leaflet. Photos of James outside the new central bus station (had he just arrived on a bus?), by the Tramshed venue, with Darren Millar (leader of the Welsh Conservatives), outside the Senedd with Andrew RT Davies (former leader of the Welsh Conservatives), with another guy I don't know possibly outside a pub, and an action shot of him cleaning some graffiti on Virgil Street. They aren't all taken on the same day either, unless he had a change of clothes with him. 

Cymraeg: None (except for the bilingual Welsh Conservatives logo)

Dragon Quotient: Zero

Graphs: none

Overall message: The Conservatives are using the hashtag #fixwales and there is a mix of ideas here, like night buses for Cardiff  and supporting live music venues. But there's some proper bollocks on here about "Labour's war on motorists" and how the Senedd shouldn't be expanded. At the same time as saying "36 more politicians? No thanks!", they are also saying they want a community council for Grangetown, which would be, er, more politicians, wouldn't it? Anyway, this is probably a good insight into the key themes the Tories will be campaigning on for the Senedd next year. 

And the very last leaflet to land on our mat was from...

Party: Reform UK

Number of leaflets: 1

Candidate: Joseph Martin

Photo effort: 1 candidate photo, where, weirdly, he's not looking at the camera.

Cymraeg: ha, ha, ha, no. 

Dragon Quotient: zero

Graphs: none

Overall Message: minimal really. "Cardiff needs Reform" is the slogan. There's a claim that Labour will introduce three week bin collections, which isn't true as far as I'm aware. On the scale of scaremongering, it's picayune stuff, but still it's misleading. I try to be fair in these reviews, even to parties I would never vote for, but there isn't much to say about this. When you have three policy statements and one of them is opposing something that isn't happening, then it's hard not to think it's a deliberate attempt to hoodwink people. 

So, that's the round up. 

Thursday is polling day. If you live near me and are voting, then vote Plaid Cymru!