2016 Welsh Assembly election UPDATED communications overview

Some more electoral bumf has come through the door. Yay. So, I'm updating the review I posted last week. We have material from two parties not mentioned before, and new material from three others.

New leaflets

The following parties haven't been in further contact, so keep their scores from last time:
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party = 0
Women's Equality Party = 1
UKIP = disqualified

Same rules as before. Here we go.

Party: The Green Party
Candidate: Anthony Slaughter
Previous point total = 4
New point awarded
bumf = 1
promises = 0
contact = 0
candidate photos = 1
Cymraeg = 1
total = 3
Points deducted
blame = 0
mud slinging = 0
photos of opponents = 0
sloganeering = 8 (it feels cruel but there is no substance to any of their aims)
typos = 0
REVISED GRAND TOTAL = 2
Update comment: It feels mean that they score so low, given how relentlessly positive and hopeful their leaflets are. But, bottom line is, I'm a pragmatist and want to know what you would actually do, not read your wishlist.

Party: Labour

Candidate: Vaughan Gething

Previous point total = 17

New points awarded

bumf = 2

promises = 1 new one (an environment plan to collect water in Grangetown). There's also an extensive list of things Labour is apparently already working on such as the redevelopment of a leisure centre.

contact = nothing new

candidate photos = 3, including one with Vaughan and a fire engine

Cymraeg = 0

additional points = 6

Points deducted

blame = 0

mud slinging = 2 (reference to broken Tory election promises and how the Tories have "abandoned young people")

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = 0 

typos = 0 (although some of the text has flowed a bit wrong on one of the leaflets)

REVISED GRAND TOTAL = 21

Update comment: As mentioned there is a big list of things Labour are doing and introducing. I like that Vaughan is putting out there what he and his party have done rather than slagging off other parties. Also a good use of photos showing him out and about. 

Party: Liberal Democrats

Candidate: This is a list leaflet although the main name mentioned on there is Eluned Parrott, so let's say it's her

Points awarded

bumf = 1

promises = 3 (safe nurse staffing levels and smaller infant school class sizes, cutting business rates on plant and machinery)

contact = 0

candidate photos = 2. I think. If we count Eluned as the candidate.

Cymraeg = 0

total = 6

Points deducted

blame = 1 (it's all Labour's fault!)

mud slinging = agh, so much! The Liberal Democrat invective machine is back up and running. I count 8 specific instances of negative comments about Labour.

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = 4

typos = 0

GRAND TOTAL = -7

Verdict: Why do the Liberal Democrats always go negative? It wouldn't be so bad if they offered concrete options but it's all wishy-washy stuff like a promise to "build an 'Opportunity Economy'" and stuff. OK. What does that look like then?

Party: Plaid Cymru

Candidate: Dafydd Trystan Davies

Previous point total = 7

New points awarded

bumf = 2 (1 local, one regional)

promises = 1 (electrification of the railways)

contact = still 0 (Come on, people, these are the easy points)

candidate photos = 3

Cymraeg = 2 (as you'd expect)

total = 7

Points deducted

blame = nobody really

mud slinging = 3 - two references to Labour's failures and also saying Labour has 'run out of steam'

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = I'm going to ding them 3 because, e.g. although they say they are going to invest in specific hospitals they don't say what that investment would be aiming to do

typos = 0

REVISED GRAND TOTAL = 8

Further comment: I'm not convinced that Plaid Cymru could pay for everything they want to do. Or that they have thought through their promises. Where exactly are they going to get 1,000 doctors from, for example? But still, generally a positive campaign.

And finally... Vapers in Power

Party: Vapers in Power

Candidate: Bernice Evans

Points Awarded

bumf = 1 (regional list leaflet)

promises = 0 really, although it mentions three places where they think vapers should be allowed to vape

contact = 0 but they do have a hashtag

candidate photos = 1

Cymraeg = 1

total = 3

Points deducted

blame = 2 (The Welsh Health Minister, Mark Drakeford, and the lying media). There's also the comment that vapers will "soon be brutalised by European legislation". Sort of some preemptive blame there.

mud slinging = 1 (their hashtag is anti-Labour)

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = 1 (a threat to hold "spreaders of malicious untruths" accountable. How?)

typos = I'm going to ding them 1 for a terrible run on sentence. There are a few garbled sentences so I think this is fair.

GRAND TOTAL = -2

Verdict: A one issue party about an issue that doesn't exercise me in the slightest. Very emotive language from someone who doesn't think anyone should tell her what to do. I am interested to see how many people bother to vote for this.

The election is on Thursday. Any more reviews will probably be after the fact now.

All the links to previous elections are in this overview of trends.

2016 Welsh Assembly election communications overview

I’ve been doing my reviews of electoral communications for a few years now (see an overview of the trends here). We have just over a week to go until the next Assembly election, so here’s my overview of the bumf we’ve had through the door so far.

Lots of people want our vote...

I’m going to use the same marking system as I did back in 2015. Candidates are awarded points for:

~ number of pieces of bumf through the door

~ number of definite promises they make

~ number of ways they offer you to get in touch, not including generic websites

~ number of different candidate photos, with bonus points if they are with the party leader

~ a point for bilingual Welsh/English leaflets

Candidates are dinged points for

~ the number of other people they blame for the mess we're in,

~ number of negative comments about other parties (mud slinging)

~ photos of politicians belonging to other parties

~ meaningless ‘slogan’ promises e.g. ‘I’m going to fight for Welsh jobs’

And new for this year, I’m going to ding for typos because if you can’t be arsed to proofread your leaflet then you should be punished.

This time round I’m going to list them alphabetically by party name.

Party: Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party

Candidate: none (they’re only going for the regional vote)

Points awarded

bumf = 1

promises = 1 (abolish the Welsh Assembly)

contact = 0

candidate photos = n/a

Cymraeg = 0

total = 2

Points deducted

blame = 1 (the Welsh Assembly is at fault for everything, it seems)

mud slinging = 0

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = 0

typos = 1 (“A talking supermarket that we didn’t wants and time has shown...)

GRAND TOTAL = 0

Verdict: this has all the hallmarks of a lone nutter with a grudge against the Welsh Assembly. One of the comments in the leaflet is ‘What has the Welsh Assembly ever done for us?’ Well, er, kept our NHS true to its ideals and in a related note given us free prescriptions.

Party: Green Party

Candidate: Anthony Slaughter in the constituency and four others on the regional list

Points awarded

bumf =2

promises = 0 (lots of slogans)

contact = 3 (Twitter, Facebook, personal email)

candidate photos =5 (all four regional candidates, including Anthony and a different one of Anthony on the constituency leaflet)

Cymraeg =2 (both leaflets fully bilingual)

total = 12

Points deducted

blame = 0

mud slinging = 0

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = The constituency leaflet has 6 things that a “Green voice in the Senedd will fight for” but with no concrete options. There’s another one on the regional leaflet, so 7 slogans in total.

typos = 1 (they medded up their bullet points on the regional leaflet)

GRAND TOTAL = 4

Verdict: On a personal level I agree with all their aims, but it feels like wishful thinking. If they had put one concrete idea behind any of their pledges I’d take them more seriously. How are they going to deliver “Sustainable and vibrant communities” for example? What does that even mean?

Party: Labour

Candidate: Vaughan Gething

Points awarded

bumf = 2

promises = 6 (e.g. create 100,000 new apprenticeships, NHS treatments fund, free childcare

contact =6 (Twitter, Facebook, email, mobile number, personal website, real world address)

candidate photos = 5 across the 2 leaflets. One of them is in front of the Grange fish bar. Yeah!

Cymraeg = 0

total = 19

Points deducted

blame = 0

mud slinging = 2 (The Tories are a threat to education and local government services)

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = 0

typos = 0 (although some of the text has flowed a bit wrong on one of the leaflets)

GRAND TOTAL = 17

Verdict: Vaughan spends a lot of his communication talking about what he has achieved as the Assembly Member for the past term. There’s a big bit bigging up NHS Wales. He also has three local residents endorsing him, which is a nice touch. 17 is the best score Labour have ever achieved in these ratings.

Party: Plaid Cymru

Candidate: Dafydd Trystan Davies (but we also got one for Cardiff Central candidate Glyn Wise)

Points awarded

bumf = 3 (although one is probably a mistake)

promises = 9

contact = All generic so 0 (oof, these are the easy points in this scoring system)

candidate photos = 2 (possible more on the regional leaflet, but it’s unclear)

Cymraeg = 3 – properly bilingual throughout

total = 17

Points deducted

blame = it’s all Labour’s fault, apparently. 1 point.

mud slinging = 5 different pops at Labour

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = 4 and lots of promises to “work tirelessly” if elected

typos = 0

GRAND TOTAL = 7

Verdict: The leaflets mention how Labour have had 17 years in power “with little to show for it” but neglect to add that a good chunk of that was in coalition with, er, Plaid Cymru. Bit of an omission.

Party: Women’s Equality Party

Candidate: none (regional list only)

Points awarded

bumf = 2

promises = 0

contact = 0 (but they do have English and Welsh hashtags)

candidate photos = 1, possibly? It’s of 4 women, one of whom is wearing a Women’s Equality badge

Cymraeg = 1 (but only just – the Welsh side doesn’t have a photo and looks like an after-thought)

total = 4

Points deducted

blame = 0

mud slinging = 0

photos of opponents = 0

sloganeering = 3, although there is a lot of positive thinking without any substance behind it

typos = 0

GRAND TOTAL = 1

Party: UKIP

Candidate: Mohammed Sarul-Islam

Wait, he’s not our candidate. He’s standing in Cardiff Central! DISQUALIFIED!

Can't vote for you
even if I wanted to!

For interest, here’s the promises in Mr Islam’s leaflet:

Introduce locally elected health boards

Introduce university technical colleges to teach vocational trade skills

Reintroduce grammar schools

Cut fees for STEM students

Devolve economic development powers to local councils

Scrap the Severn Bridge tolls

And here are the meaningless unsubstantiated slogans:

Support long-term investment in staff and resources for a better NHS

Treat cancer as a top priority

UKIP will hold the Welsh Government accountable

Bring jobs into the local area

And this statement that isn’t really a promise or anything:

UKIP opposes tax raising powers being devolved to the Assembly without a referendum (they love their referendums)

All the links to previous elections are in this overview of trends.

Looking forward to the Welsh Assembly electioneering

Long-time readers of this blog may know that I have reviewed election leaflets posted through my door (here's last year's General Election one). So far we have had one leaflet in the run up to this year's Welsh Assembly elections. It is being kept safe to one side to be reviewed with the others I'm anticipating will come through the door.

For some reason I didn't do a full review of election leaflets in the last Assembly elections back in 2011. I'm a bit annoyed with myself now for not doing that, but I had a lot on I guess and I didn't know posts about election leaflets would be so popular (last year's general election one was the most viewed blog post in 2015).

Of course, over time, I have collected quite a bit of data (when I've been bothered to!) and so here is a graph of the amount of election bumf that has been shoved through our doors since 2007.

Election leaflets through the letterbox 2007-2015

Some things are fairly obvious. It's a Labour safe seat but we always get a few leaflets from them, but not too many. The Liberal Democrats seem to have died off since 2010. We got none from them last year and they were prolific before that. (In fact, all their inter-election 'Focus' papers and stuff seem to have disappeared as well.) UKIP went through a 'U' of their own, with zero leaflets in 2010 to pushing the most through our letterbox in 2015. Partly I think this is because we have a Kipper in our street, which might explain why we get so many leaflets from them. (We know he's a Kipper because he puts the posters up in his windows.)

I'm interested to see what we get this year. None of the main political parties seem flush with cash or, more crucially, have many determined, committed local supporters. I think that's what's done for the Lib Dems as a force in this area. It will be interesting to see whether UKIP sustain their levels of communication. They might be saving their ammo for the EU referendum six weeks later.

Anyway, I'll rate the leaflets nearer the time, I promise. No repeat of 2011 here. In the meantime, if you want to catch up on previous ratings, here is the complete list.
General Election 2015

2012 by-election

2010 general election

2009 European Parliament elections

Welsh Assembly 2007 elections and additions

Voting firsts

Election today. A couple of firsts for me...

First time voting in a UK-wide referendum. I have voted in two previous refferendwms (i.e. Welsh-only votes).

First time where I has a personal stake in the election, in that the Labour party have made a manifesto pledge to keep my project running. I like my job. Guess how I voted.

Also, another first - being handed three voting ballots. Never have I had to make so many X's!

I haven't done the usual run down of pre-election bumf. But to sum it up - the parties prefer writing to Cathy than to me, the Tory candidate looked like a slug, for some reason we got delivered Labour leaflets for another area's candidate as well as our own, the Liberal Democrats comments about the NHS were a pack of lies, Plaid Cymru had the scariest leaflet (about letting the Tories in through the back door!), the Greens thought Cathy was more likely to read than me (my mailing was a poster).

All good fun.

I love elections. I'd vote every year if we had to.

In among the recycling

Shoch horror! The scientific system I used to assess each of the political parties for last week's election has been undermined by the discovery of three more leaflets in a pile of paper destined for the recycling bag. The real losers are the Socialist Equality Party, who I didn't realise had posted anything through the door, but Plaid and Labour also potentially missed out on some extra points.

Oh, well, lesson learned. I'll just have to be extra vigilant next time we have some election fun.

Electioneering

The Welsh Assembly elections are a couple of days away and at present I’m still one of those elusive creatures every vote-hungry politician is looking for: a floating voter; an undecided; a possible convert. A few years ago I voted basing my decision on whoever knocked on my door. I ended up being one of the 167* people who voted for the Socialist Party. I haven’t decided to do the same thing this year, otherwise it would be a toss up between voting for the Jehovah’s Witnesses or SWALEC.
*I’m making this figure up but it was stupidly low

Instead I’ve decided to conduct an experiment to see who is worthy of my vote. I’m awarding points based on the following categories up to tonight:
Number of items posted through my door (1 point each)
Likeability of candidate (based on photo), rated out of 5
Positive statements about what they’re planning to do (1 point each)
Contactability of candidate (1 point each for phone no, email and website)
And, in the interest of positive politics I’m going to deduct a point for every negative thing said about another political party (slanging match points)

I’m going to list them in order of desperation, ie based on how many pieces of post we’ve had. So, first up are:

The Conservative Party
Tagline: Making a Difference in Your Community
Number of Items: 5 (2 tri-fold brochures posted, 1 tri-fold delivered, 1 long postcard delivered, 1 A5 bilingual leaflet delivered)
Likeability: Nice smiling picture of reasonably attractive female candidate, Karen Roberts: 4/5
+ve statements – The long postcard has 5 on the NHS, 5 on building stronger communities, 5 on protecting our environment, that’s 15 on just one piece of free lit + 3 about council tax and another 3 on the NHS on the tri-folds. Also claim "Welsh Conservatives are committed to tackling climate change" and "have pledged to make significant improvements to the public transport network". Karen’s introductory letter cites "social justice" and the NHS as their top priorities. The A5 leaflet lists 15 pledges in English and Welsh, although there’s some overlap. Total +ve statements = 40 (!)
Contactability: 3 points, although when I phoned her I got an impersonal messaging service
SMP: Can’t resist slagging off Labour re council tax bills (twice), post office closures, NHS bureaucracy, and public transport. (Total = -5)

Grand total = 47 points.

The Liberal Democrats
Tagline: none
Number of items: 3 (black and white trifold, pseudo-newspaper, hand-addressed envelope with ‘personal’ letter from candidate, earning them a bonus point for originality, so 4 points awarded)
Likeability: Very wet-behind-the-ears-looking male candidate, Dominic Hannigan. But he does have a nice smile and will probably win lots of votes off grannies: 3/5
+ve statements: mainly based on Lib Dem council achievements, rather than any new promises. Positive statements include more police on the beat, free school milk, new libraries, green energy/climate change, new cycle/footbridge across the Ely river (worth 2 points as a genuine local issue), smaller class sizes, oh, and apparently Charles Kennedy visited Cardiff just to lend Dominic some support… Total +ves = 8
Contactability: mobile phone number (1)
SMP: a huge amount. Spends most of the pseudo-newspaper attacking Labour, with no positive statements on the front page at all ("Brown’s Budget Tax Con" is the Sun style headline). Also handily includes a ‘form guide’ on the back, where Labour and the Lib Dems are ‘joint favourites’, while the Conservatives are given ‘outside odds’ and Plaid Cymru are dismissed as "non-starters". In an ‘interview with the candidate, Dominic says: "Tony Blair has been such a disappointment". In the tri-fold, the negative campaigning gets worse, with "Many Tory and Plaid voters are now switching to the Lib Dems to help beat Labour." It also doesn’t help to have to include a grovelling apology for slandering a Labour councillor in your election communication!
Total = -16
(Ironically, at the end of the ‘personal letter’, after 3 goes at Labour and then pointing out that Plaid and the Tories have no chance against Labour, Dominic says: "Please remember my fight is not against the other parties but it is for your family and our area.")

Grand Total = 0 points

Plaid Cymru
Tagline: It’s time to make a difference
Number of items: 3 (glossy tri-fold, 2 black and white tri-folds)
Likeability: Jason Scott Toby is another young chap, who’s photo isn’t helped by the Plaid daffodil logo sticking out on either side of his head making him look like a moomin: 3/5
+ve statements: "7 for ‘07" pledges on the glossy Green tri-fold, including ending student debt, the environment, first home grants, community NHS, plus 6 very specific pledges on the reverse and 3 pacifist statements. States it’s politics very clearly: "We are a centre left party that wants Wales to take its place with other independent nations in the European Union." The two black and white pieces lead off with "Save the NHS" and "Time to crack crime". Pledges an alternative to Labour on the NHS with 2 promises. Total: 18
Contactability: 0
SMP: none on the glossy Green leaflet, the two black and white ones have a few. Attacks Labour on the NHS and the Lib Dems "3 year record of shame in Cardiff" and calls them FibDems, which is funny but not very mature. Total -ves = 8

Grand total: 16 points

Labour
Tagline: Building a Better Wales
Number of items: 2 (2 glossy tri-folds, posted – unfold into a window poster)
Likeability: Frumpy incumbent AM Lorraine Barrett, poses at her desk: 3/5
+ve statements: transport, ending child poverty, 3 pledges on the elderly, animal welfare, the environment (8 pledges ranging from the general through to the oddly specific "A tree will be planted for every newborn & adopted child in Wales."), more powers to police and councils to tackle anti-social behaviour. Total: 13
Contactability: 3 points
SMP: none!

Grand Total: 21 points

UK Independence Party
Tagline: The real opposition
Number of items: 2 (2 different A5 colour flyers, one delivered in an envelope with a response form)
Likeability: no photos, no points
+ve statements: 8 (although one of the ‘positive’ pledges is to scrap the smoking ban)
Contactability: freephone and general website, so 2 points
SMP: doesn’t mention any other party by name, or inference, so no minus points

Grand Total: 12 points

British National Party
Tagline: none
Number of items: 1 (A5 colour flyer)
Likeability: well, their candidate, John Walker, isn’t a skinhead. Looks an OK chap from his photo: 3/5
+ve statements: (bearing in mind these are pledges of what they’d do if elected, not statements that are actually positive) opposes cheap migrant labour, political correctness, and corruption in government spending. 3 points.
Contactability: freephone (1)
SMP: Lists a five point pledge card that the "other parties" have signed up to. A quick calculation means that attacking four parties on five points equals twenty slanging match points. But they save their main vitriol for UKIP in a paragraph that’s worth reproducing in full: "PS Don’t be conned by UKIP either. Their leaders have used cheap Polish labour to do up their mansions. Their MEPs all broke their promise to hand over their huge Brussels expenses claims to help fund the fight against a federal EU. They’re just greedy English Tories in green wellies." Total SMP = -21

Grand Total: -13

So, according to the highly unscientific research I’ve just carried out, who should I vote for? Let’s look at the leader board…
Conservatives 47
Labour 21
Plaid Cymru 16
UKIP 12
Liberal Democrats 0
BNP –13

I can't believe that after all that I may have convinced myself to vote Tory. I think I’m going to have to sleep on this one.