Caerffili election reflection

The dust is settling after Plaid Cymru's win in the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly. Several days after the election my friend Anna asked me if I was going to blog about it, and I said it was on my list of things to do. At this rate, I think I might be the last commentator to pass comment. 

Senator Whittle a few days before the win

There are some headline takeaways. It's the first time Plaid Cymru have won in Caerphilly. Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru's candidate, was standing for the 14th time in an election. It's the first election in a hundred years in Caerphilly that hasn't been won by Labour.

Oh, and Reform lost. By a considerable margin in the end. 

Turnout was high - 50% of the electorate, which was higher than in the last Senedd election. Reform tend to get people who don't usually vote to vote for them, but this time it seems like they encouraged a lot of people to venture out and vote for their main opponent.

Although they've put a brave spin on it, this was a major slap backwards for Reform. They expected to win. They had their victory party booked. Nigel had been to town a couple of times to gee up the locals with his anti-immigration dogwhistles. Reform's media cheerleaders had made the story all about them. And Reform had certainly splashed the roubles trying to get that seat in the Senedd. My friend Ben sent me pictures of all the leaflets and Reform churned out loads!

But Plaid Cymru won. Wales won. 

It's annoying that the media coverage seems to have been a) Reform came second, b) Labour got battered in a safe heartland seat, c) er, Plaid Cymru won.

Although... without the Reform angle, I'm not sure how much interest there would have been in this. I doubt the result - and Lindsay's name - would have been reported in the New York Times. I doubt (K)GB News would have had pundits staying up all night waiting for the result. (They were, apparently, quite disappointed.)

The following day this was circulating on social media. It summed up how a lot of people felt.

My main feeling was relief. I went to bed on Thursday night in a high level of anxiety. On Friday morning when I checked my phone I felt close to crying. Politics has been so relentlessly grim recently it felt so alien to be happy at an election result. 

I had reason to be anxious. I had been canvassing in Caerphilly a few times and the number of Reform placards and posters had increased over time. People said they were thinking of voting for them or were very coy on the doorsteps, which I interpreted as planning to vote Reform but being embarrased to admit it. There was fear too. An Asian family who ran a shop said the rise of Reform made them feel afraid for the first time about living in Caerphilly. I hope they celebrated the Plaid Cymru win.

Canvassing wasn't always easy. I got soaked to the skin in Ystrad Mynach. But the result makes it worth it. 

Ystrad Mynach before the deluge

The general consensus among people I've talked to is that this election isn't a very reliable indicator of how the Senedd election next year will go. This was a straight 'first past the post' election and, like many other commentators, I have a feeling people chose to vote Plaid Cymru as they had the best chance of beating Reform. As I said back in August after the Grangetown council election, it's hard to make floating voters stick. 

But hope springs eternal. Caerphilly's new Senedd member is a great advocate for his home town and the surrounding communities. I hope the people who voted for him see that and choose to vote for him again in May next year.