Book of the Month: The Road to Independence

This book is Plaid Cymru's evidence to the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales. As you might expect, it lays out very clearly a case for Cymru being an independent nation. For a political book, it's a very accessible read. (It's also shorter than it looks because it's bilingual!)

The book starts with a compelling case why the current political status quo is unsustainable and why half measures like "federalism" won't work. And then it gets into the guts of the argument and directly addresses whether Cymru could afford to be an independent nation in its own right.

That is almost always the first question people ask me when I start talking about annibyniaeth for Cymru. My answer is usually that I don't think Wales can afford to remain trapped in the current union either. Neither can most of England, for that matter. The so-called "fiscal deficit" in Cymru occurs in all the regions of England outside of London and the South East. 

Having travelled to various parts of England for work (and football matches) in the past couple of years, I found it very interesting to see financial figures that back up my hunch that there is poverty across swathes of the country and many communities are on a knife edge. Clearly Westminster isn't working for most of England either. 

The writers deconstruct the various figures used to argue for the unaffordability of Independence. Many of those figures are guestimates; several of the figures presumably wouldn't apply or could be traded off - for example if the coming Republic was expected to inherit some of the debt racked up by the UK, then Westminster would be liable for public sector and state pension payments to people who worked for the UK institutions or have moved to Wales in their retirement. Those costs kind of balance each other out reducing the fiscal deficit significantly. 

The answer to whether Cymru can afford to be independent is therefore 'probably yes'. Much would depend on the terms of leaving the UK - and as seen with Brexit, there are good ways to leave a union and terrible ways to leave a union. Being optimistic, it's definitely possible and hopefully the parting could be amicable. 

Another pressing reason for Independence is the sheer lack of constitutional protections for citizens and institutions in the current UK system. Parliament in Westminster is ultimately the source of all rights and freedoms for individuals, and the source of authority for the devolved Parliaments in Cymru, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The Senedd's continued existence relies on Westminster granting powers to it. A different flavour of government in the UK could abolish the devolved Parliaments even if every MP from outside England voting against abolition. 

This shows just how marginalised Cymru is in the UK. There are 32 MPs from Wales in the current Westminster parliament compared to 543 from England. (Scotland has 57 MPs and Northern Ireland has 18.) The number of Welsh seats dropped from 40 in 2019 to 32 in 2024 - a reduction of 20%. This was because the population of the UK grew disproportionately, with a bigger increase in England. Rather than increase the number of MPs, constituency boundaries were redrawn with larger populations. Effectively, Wales lost 8 seats to England. 

Within that context, there is no real hope of the particular needs of Wales being anything but a minor concern to the Westminster Parliament. Decisions can continue to be made that affect Wales without representatives from Wales being able to influence them - see for example the scandalous decision to class the High Speed 2 rail investment as an 'England and Wales' project thereby diverting funding that should have come to Wales, or the decision earlier this year not to devolve the Crown Estate income to the Welsh Government despite the Scottish Government controlling the income from Crown Estate in Scotland. 

The democratic argument for Independence is quite clear.  There is no written constitution to protect the people of the UK from a capricious or malevolent government. Money is withheld from the people of Wales on the whim of MPs elected elsewhere under relatively benign governments. Wales is not safe in the Union. (And there is a good case to say people living in England are a lot less safer than they think they are.)

So in conclusion, I think this book should be required reading for anyone with views for or against annibyniaeth. It's level-headed, reasonably argued, succinct and accessible. And very compelling.